Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 1029 at 08:00, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 1029 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 08:00	LIH 08:55	8%	2%	0.8%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	KOA 06:05 → HNL 06:55WN 2166	2h 45m Honolulu	HNL 09:40 → LIH 10:30WN 1921	4h 25m	100%	95%
Alaska Details →	KOA 06:00 → HNL 06:47AS 1017	2h 28m Honolulu	HNL 09:15 → LIH 09:56AS 1183	3h 56m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	KOA 15:35 → HNL 16:30WN 2169	50m Honolulu	HNL 17:20 → LIH 18:05WN 2349	2h 30m	92%	78%
Alaska Details →	KOA 15:11 → HNL 16:00AS 1107	3h 31m Honolulu	HNL 19:31 → LIH 20:13AS 1163	5h 02m	100%	77%
Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	2h 21m Kahului	OGG 12:16 → LIH 13:06AS 1049	3h 47m	100%	74%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:31 → HNL 09:19AS 1027	2h 07m Honolulu	HNL 11:26 → LIH 12:09AS 1063	3h 38m	99%	73%
Alaska Details →	KOA 14:34 → HNL 15:23AS 1097	3h 27m Honolulu	HNL 18:50 → LIH 19:31AS 1153	4h 57m	99%	72%
Alaska Details →	KOA 13:26 → HNL 14:15AS 1077	3h 53m Honolulu	HNL 18:08 → LIH 18:49AS 1143	5h 23m	99%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	KOA 12:51 → OGG 13:28AS 1149	56m Kahului	OGG 14:24 → LIH 15:13AS 1159	2h 22m	69%	48%
Alaska Details →	KOA 09:44 → HNL 10:32AS 1037	54m Honolulu	HNL 11:26 → LIH 12:09AS 1063	2h 25m	60%	44%
Alaska Details →	KOA 16:33 → HNL 17:20AS 1127	48m Honolulu	HNL 18:08 → LIH 18:49AS 1143	2h 16m	37%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON