Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 253 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 11:58	PDX 20:35	12%	3%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 08:03 → SEA 16:55AS 513	3h 30m Seattle	SEA 20:25 → PDX 21:22AS 2387 · flown by Horizon	10h 19m	100%	82%
Alaska Details →	KOA 11:15 → LAX 19:32AS 920	2h 03m Los Angeles	LAX 21:35 → PDX 23:56AS 207	9h 41m	100%	80%
United Details →	KOA 11:55 → SFO 20:03UA 1722	2h 49m San Francisco	SFO 22:52 → PDX 00:50 +1UA 2384	9h 55m	98%	79%
United Details →	KOA 07:00 → SFO 15:10UA 1321	3h 46m San Francisco	SFO 18:56 → PDX 20:54UA 2262	10h 54m	100%	79%
Alaska Details →	KOA 17:02 → HNL 17:49AS 1137	3h 50m Honolulu	HNL 21:39 → PDX 06:11 +1AS 880	10h 09m	99%	78%
Alaska Details →	KOA 06:00 → HNL 06:47AS 1017	58m Honolulu	HNL 07:45 → PDX 16:17AS 840	7h 17m	91%	76%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:00 → LIH 08:55AS 1029	3h 28m Lihue	LIH 12:23 → PDX 20:48AS 884	9h 48m	100%	76%
Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	1h 06m Kahului	OGG 11:01 → PDX 19:27AS 1490	7h 08m	88%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON