Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Honolulu, leaving 19:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Phoenix on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 664 American Flight history →	KOA 21:45	PHX 06:35	7%	4%	0.8%	95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	KOA 19:00 → HNL 19:55WN 2170	1h 05m Honolulu	HNL 21:00 → PHX 05:55 +1WN 2277	7h 55m	92%	82%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:31 → HNL 09:19AS 1027	1h 51m Honolulu	HNL 11:10 → PHX 20:08AS 836	8h 37m	98%	78%
United Details →	KOA 07:00 → SFO 15:10UA 1321	1h 15m San Francisco	SFO 16:25 → PHX 18:39UA 574	8h 39m	100%	73%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:03 → SEA 16:55AS 513	3h 55m Seattle	SEA 20:50 → PHX 23:49AS 644	12h 46m	100%	66%
Southwest Details →	KOA 10:00 → SMF 18:05WN 2316	1h 45m Sacramento	SMF 19:50 → PHX 21:45WN 4285	8h 45m	100%	63%
Alaska Details →	KOA 10:37 → SAN 19:02AS 266	2h 17m San Diego	SAN 21:19 → PHX 22:39AS 2049 · flown by Horizon	9h 02m	95%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON