tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Honolulu, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 266 Alaska Flight history → KOA 10:37 SAN 19:02 21% 4% 0.8% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → KOA 06:05 → HNL 06:55WN 2166 1h 15m Honolulu HNL 08:10 → SAN 16:35WN 1938 7h 30m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → KOA 12:57 → LAX 21:26UA 2372 1h 30m Los Angeles LAX 22:56 → SAN 23:54UA 594 7h 57m 96% 76%
SouthwestDetails → KOA 19:00 → HNL 19:55WN 2170 1h 30m Honolulu HNL 21:25 → SAN 05:50 +1WN 512 7h 50m 92% 76%
AlaskaDetails → KOA 08:00 → LIH 08:55AS 1029 1h 51m Lihue LIH 10:46 → SAN 19:24AS 228 8h 24m 99% 72%
UnitedDetails → KOA 07:00 → SFO 15:10UA 1321 3h 50m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → SAN 20:53UA 1343 10h 53m 100% 72%
UnitedDetails → KOA 11:55 → SFO 20:03UA 1722 2h 39m San Francisco SFO 22:42 → SAN 00:31 +1UA 2142 9h 36m 98% 71%
AlaskaDetails → KOA 17:45 → HNL 18:32AS 1147 3h 23m Honolulu HNL 21:55 → SAN 06:32 +1AS 1412 9h 47m 98% 71%
AlaskaDetails → KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039 2h 27m Kahului OGG 12:22 → SAN 20:43AS 203 8h 24m 100% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → KOA 10:51 → HNL 11:40AS 1057 59m Honolulu HNL 12:39 → SAN 21:07AS 816 7h 16m 74% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON