Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 513 KOA 08:03 → SEA 16:55 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 205 KOA 13:18 → SEA 22:11 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 513 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 08:03	SEA 16:55	11%	3%	0.9%	94%
DL 485 Delta Flight history →	KOA 21:55	SEA 06:46	12%	7%	1.1%	93%
AS 259 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 21:19	SEA 06:12	16%	5%	1.1%	91%
AS 205 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 13:18	SEA 22:11	19%	7%	1.0%	82%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	KOA 11:58 → PDX 20:35AS 253	55m Portland	PDX 21:30 → SEA 22:27AS 2421 · flown by Horizon	7h 29m	86%	77%
Alaska Details →	KOA 18:30 → HNL 19:17AS 1157	2h 03m Honolulu	HNL 21:20 → SEA 05:59 +1AS 122	8h 29m	96%	73%
Alaska Details →	KOA 12:51 → OGG 13:28AS 1149	1h 47m Kahului	OGG 15:15 → SEA 23:59AS 244	8h 08m	96%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON