Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1321 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 1321 KOA 07:00 → SFO 15:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AS 404 KOA 15:40 → SFO 23:48 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1321 United Flight history →	KOA 07:00	SFO 15:10	5%	3%	0.7%	100%
UA 1724 United Flight history →	KOA 22:50	SFO 07:00	6%	4%	0.8%	97%
UA 1722 United Flight history →	KOA 11:55	SFO 20:03	13%	6%	0.7%	81%
UA 693 United Flight history →	KOA 13:52	SFO 21:57	14%	6%	0.7%	82%
AS 404 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 15:40	SFO 23:48	24%	9%	0.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON