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Friday, October 9 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Honolulu, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 94% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 8% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 921 Alaska Flight history → KOA 12:51 SJC 20:49 22% 9% 0.6% 70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → KOA 06:05 → HNL 06:55WN 2166 1h 20m Honolulu HNL 08:15 → SJC 16:20WN 1940 7h 15m 100% 94%
SouthwestDetails → KOA 08:05 → HNL 08:55WN 2167 2h 05m Honolulu HNL 11:00 → SJC 19:00WN 4994 7h 55m 100% 88%
AlaskaDetails → KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039 2h 12m Kahului OGG 12:07 → SJC 20:03AS 954 7h 44m 99% 80%
AlaskaDetails → KOA 08:03 → SEA 16:55AS 513 3h 11m Seattle SEA 20:06 → SJC 22:21AS 1310 11h 18m 100% 73%
AlaskaDetails → KOA 11:58 → PDX 20:35AS 253 55m Portland PDX 21:30 → SJC 23:21AS 678 8h 23m 83% 69%
AlaskaDetails → KOA 08:31 → HNL 09:19AS 1027 3h 11m Honolulu HNL 12:30 → SJC 20:40AS 1411 9h 09m 99% 67%
AlaskaDetails → KOA 10:37 → SAN 19:02AS 266 3h 23m San Diego SAN 22:25 → SJC 23:55AS 1624 10h 18m 98% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → KOA 08:03 → SEA 16:55AS 513 50m Seattle SEA 17:45 → SJC 20:00AS 539 8h 57m 62% 43%
AlaskaDetails → KOA 10:51 → HNL 11:40AS 1057 50m Honolulu HNL 12:30 → SJC 20:40AS 1411 6h 49m 8% 5%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON