Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 09:19, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2316 Southwest Flight history →	KOA 10:00	SMF 18:05	9%	4%	0.5%	97%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	KOA 08:05 → HNL 08:55WN 2167	2h 05m Honolulu	HNL 11:00 → SMF 19:10WN 1942	8h 05m	100%	86%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:00 → LIH 08:55AS 1029	1h 53m Lihue	LIH 10:48 → SMF 19:01AS 966	8h 01m	99%	77%
Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	1h 32m Kahului	OGG 11:27 → SMF 19:27AS 960	7h 08m	96%	75%
United Details →	KOA 07:00 → SFO 15:10UA 1321	1h 58m San Francisco	SFO 17:08 → SMF 18:16UA 5796 · flown by SkyWest	8h 16m	100%	72%
United Details →	KOA 11:55 → SFO 20:03UA 1722	2h 51m San Francisco	SFO 22:54 → SMF 23:59UA 1302	9h 04m	98%	69%
Alaska Details →	KOA 09:44 → HNL 10:32AS 1037	3h 28m Honolulu	HNL 14:00 → SMF 22:09AS 820	9h 25m	100%	67%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:03 → SEA 16:55AS 513	2h 28m Seattle	SEA 19:23 → SMF 21:16AS 638	10h 13m	100%	65%
Alaska Details →	KOA 10:37 → SAN 19:02AS 266	2h 45m San Diego	SAN 21:47 → SMF 23:32AS 1621	9h 55m	97%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	KOA 12:18 → HNL 13:07AS 1067	53m Honolulu	HNL 14:00 → SMF 22:09AS 820	6h 51m	57%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON