Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 69 at 20:27, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 69 Alaska Flight history →	KTN 20:27	JNU 21:25	12%	3%	3.7%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Juneau on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KTN 09:20 → SEA 12:21AS 60	1h 22m Seattle	SEA 13:43 → JNU 15:17AS 435	5h 57m	90%	57%
Alaska Details →	KTN 17:23 → SEA 20:21AS 64	1h 02m Seattle	SEA 21:23 → JNU 22:55AS 71	5h 32m	81%	56%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	KTN 17:39 → SIT 18:32AS 67	58m Sitka	SIT 19:30 → JNU 20:12AS 67	2h 33m	74%	52%
Alaska Details →	KTN 16:00 → SEA 19:00AS 214	50m Seattle	SEA 19:50 → JNU 21:22AS 1559	5h 22m	68%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON