Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 15–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 62 KTN 13:29 → SEA 16:30 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 214 KTN 16:00 → SEA 19:00 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 62 Alaska Flight history →	KTN 13:29	SEA 16:30	15%	5%	2.9%	88%
AS 60 Alaska Flight history →	KTN 09:20	SEA 12:21	16%	5%	3.1%	85%
AS 596 Alaska Flight history →	KTN 12:13	SEA 15:14	19%	6%	3.3%	81%
AS 64 Alaska Flight history →	KTN 17:23	SEA 20:21	20%	7%	2.2%	86%
AS 214 Alaska Flight history →	KTN 16:00	SEA 19:00	23%	7%	2.7%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON