tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 39 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 580 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 580 LAX 05:10 → ORD 11:27 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest F9 2446 LAX 23:59 → ORD 06:17 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 580 United Flight history → LAX 05:10 ORD 11:27 5% 2% 0.6% 98%
WN 4398 Southwest Flight history → LAX 05:10 MDW 11:10 6% 1% 0.6% 90%
AA 383 American Flight history → LAX 06:05 ORD 12:32 7% 4% 0.9% 91%
UA 2171 United Flight history → ONT 06:10 ORD 12:25 7% 2% 0.8% 91%
UA 587 United Flight history → SNA 06:45 ORD 13:09 7% 2% 0.6% 87%
UA 1941 United Flight history → LAX 07:00 ORD 13:14 8% 3% 0.6% 91%
WN 3156 Southwest Flight history → BUR 07:25 MDW 13:20 9% 2% 0.8% 98%
UA 729 United Flight history → LAX 00:13 ORD 06:32 10% 3% 0.6% 83%
WN 4542 Southwest Flight history → LGB 08:15 MDW 14:05 10% 2% 0.7% 83%
UA 1946 United Flight history → LAX 08:15 ORD 14:35 11% 4% 0.6% 85%
UA 1754 United Flight history → LAX 18:58 ORD 01:15 11% 5% 0.6% 83%
AA 2590 American Flight history → SNA 07:45 ORD 14:08 12% 5% 0.8% 88%
AA 2919 American Flight history → LAX 00:40 ORD 07:06 12% 5% 0.9% 87%
WN 3153 Southwest Flight history → ONT 23:55 MDW 05:40 13% 3% 0.6% 83%
UA 212 United Flight history → LAX 17:00 ORD 23:16 13% 6% 0.6% 87%
UA 353 United Flight history → LAX 22:35 ORD 04:51 14% 4% 0.6% 90%
AA 1598 American Flight history → LAX 08:00 ORD 14:27 14% 6% 0.8% 90%
UA 1962 United Flight history → LAX 23:30 ORD 05:46 14% 5% 0.6% 88%
DL 967 Delta Flight history → LAX 07:40 ORD 13:46 14% 5% 0.6% 85%
UA 2426 United Flight history → SNA 10:37 ORD 16:53 16% 5% 0.6% 79%
UA 2113 United Flight history → LAX 10:45 ORD 17:04 18% 6% 0.6% 78%
AA 2608 American Flight history → LAX 09:30 ORD 15:59 18% 9% 0.8% 76%
AA 2718 American Flight history → LAX 16:25 ORD 23:00 20% 10% 0.9% 66%
AA 1433 American Flight history → LAX 17:50 ORD 00:07 21% 9% 0.8% 62%
DL 1634 Delta Flight history → LAX 17:15 ORD 23:18 21% 9% 0.6% 67%
UA 457 United Flight history → LAX 12:50 ORD 19:05 21% 7% 0.6% 69%
AA 1009 American Flight history → LAX 22:36 ORD 05:00 21% 8% 0.9% 76%
UA 2487 United Flight history → LAX 14:26 ORD 20:40 23% 7% 0.6% 69%
DL 2368 Delta Flight history → LAX 11:24 ORD 17:35 23% 8% 0.6% 66%
AA 1628 American Flight history → LAX 10:21 ORD 16:50 23% 9% 0.8% 52%
AA 2679 American Flight history → SNA 11:30 ORD 17:59 24% 7% 0.8% 77%
WN 2413 Southwest Flight history → LAX 23:55 MDW 05:55 24% 5% 0.6% 86%worse than usual
AA 2640 American Flight history → SNA 15:11 ORD 21:50 25% 7% 0.8% 67%
AA 1050 American Flight history → LAX 11:40 ORD 18:12 26% 10% 0.8% 61%
AA 3134 American Flight history → LAX 13:16 ORD 19:59 26% 10% 0.8% 58%
UA 1352 United Flight history → SNA 14:10 ORD 20:26 27% 6% 0.6% 68%
WN 734 Southwest Flight history → LAX 11:45 MDW 17:40 29% 5% 0.6% 55%
WN 4541 Southwest Flight history → LAX 18:20 MDW 00:20 34% 8% 0.6% 37%
F9 2446 Frontier Flight history → LAX 23:59 ORD 06:17 37% 16% 4.2% 61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
SouthwestDetails → ONT 05:15 → PHX 06:30WN 864 1h 00m Phoenix PHX 07:30 → MDW 12:50WN 3296 5h 35m 96% 88%
SouthwestDetails → ONT 05:50 → DEN 09:05WN 3144 55m Denver DEN 10:00 → MDW 13:25WN 755 5h 35m 93% 82%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 07:50 → PHX 09:10WN 2491 50m Phoenix PHX 10:00 → MDW 15:15WN 4066 5h 25m 77% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON