Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 47 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4320 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 4320 SNA 06:45 → DAL 11:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest WN 2388 LAX 17:50 → DAL 22:55 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 15% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4320 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 06:45	DAL 11:55	4%	1%	0.6%	81%
WN 4128 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 05:00	DAL 10:05	6%	1%	0.6%	80%
AA 1382 American Flight history →	SNA 06:46	DFW 12:02	7%	3%	1.2%	89%
AA 1412 American Flight history →	ONT 05:34	DFW 10:41	7%	3%	0.9%	89%
AA 2893 American Flight history →	ONT 07:00	DFW 12:09	7%	3%	0.9%	87%
AA 2811 American Flight history →	LAX 06:00	DFW 11:15	8%	4%	0.9%	87%
AA 2746 American Flight history →	LAX 07:00	DFW 12:18	10%	4%	0.9%	87%
AA 2372 American Flight history →	SNA 08:01	DFW 13:15	10%	4%	1.1%	82%
DL 521 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:35	DFW 12:48	11%	5%	0.7%	88%
AA 2599 American Flight history →	BUR 07:01	DFW 12:19	12%	4%	1.4%	92%
WN 264 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 09:30	DAL 14:30	14%	2%	0.6%	85%
AA 971 American Flight history →	LAX 00:31	DFW 05:41	15%	6%	0.9%	85%
WN 1362 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 07:50	DAL 12:50	15%	2%	0.6%	44%
AA 2238 American Flight history →	ONT 10:25	DFW 15:37	15%	4%	0.9%	81%
AA 2644 American Flight history →	SNA 09:16	DFW 14:30	15%	5%	1.1%	86%
AA 2680 American Flight history →	SNA 10:25	DFW 15:39	16%	4%	1.1%	88%
F9 4690 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 08:17	DFW 13:31	17%	5%	0.8%	76%
AA 2317 American Flight history →	LAX 08:00	DFW 13:16	17%	6%	0.9%	76%
AA 1445 American Flight history →	LAX 01:10	DFW 06:20	17%	6%	0.9%	82%
AA 1186 American Flight history →	LAX 09:02	DFW 14:25	18%	8%	0.9%	67%
WN 2921 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 11:45	DAL 16:50	18%	3%	0.8%	81%
AA 2242 American Flight history →	ONT 12:35	DFW 17:50	18%	6%	0.9%	75%
AA 3006 American Flight history →	ONT 23:59	DFW 05:00	19%	5%	1.1%	70%
DL 420 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:53	DFW 23:59	20%	8%	0.8%	82%
AA 2672 American Flight history →	SNA 11:56	DFW 17:12	20%	7%	1.2%	84%
AA 3218 American Flight history →	LAX 10:30	DFW 15:53	21%	9%	0.9%	73%
AA 2239 American Flight history →	ONT 14:15	DFW 19:30	21%	9%	0.9%	57%
DL 948 Delta Flight history →	LAX 13:50	DFW 19:04	21%	7%	0.7%	86%
AA 2994 American Flight history →	LAX 15:00	DFW 20:21	22%	9%	0.8%	63%
AA 2669 American Flight history →	SNA 12:55	DFW 18:14	22%	8%	1.0%	58%
AA 2668 American Flight history →	SNA 18:39	DFW 23:46	22%	7%	1.5%	77%
F9 2274 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 09:39	DFW 14:58	22%	9%	1.1%	82%
AA 1230 American Flight history →	LAX 12:15	DFW 17:34	23%	10%	0.8%	71%
AA 1669 American Flight history →	LAX 18:45	DFW 23:53	23%	10%	1.0%	67%
AA 2688 American Flight history →	SNA 16:34	DFW 21:49	24%	9%	1.3%	67%
AA 3136 American Flight history →	LAX 23:48	DFW 05:01	25%	7%	1.0%	68%
AA 2732 American Flight history →	LAX 17:45	DFW 23:03	25%	10%	1.1%	48%
AA 2041 American Flight history →	LAX 13:53	DFW 19:14	25%	10%	0.8%	49%
AA 2024 American Flight history →	LAX 16:15	DFW 21:33	26%	10%	0.9%	54%
AA 2684 American Flight history →	SNA 14:24	DFW 19:44	26%	9%	1.0%	78%
AA 1617 American Flight history →	BUR 12:57	DFW 18:22	26%	8%	1.4%	69%
F9 4652 Frontier	SNA 15:32	DFW 20:52	27%	11%	1.1%	no record
WN 3247 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 16:20	DAL 21:15	29%	9%	0.8%	58%
F9 3212 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 18:25	DFW 23:42	31%	14%	1.1%	64%
WN 1263 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 10:45	DAL 15:45	32%	4%	0.6%	28%
WN 4306 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 14:55	DAL 20:00	36%	10%	0.6%	27%
WN 2388 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 17:50	DAL 22:55	37%	14%	0.6%	15%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON