tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 51 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1403 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 1403 LAX 06:00 → EWR 14:37 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 359 BUR 21:25 → JFK 05:59 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 1403 United Flight history → LAX 06:00 EWR 14:37 6% 2% 0.8% 92%
UA 2743 United Flight history → LAX 07:00 EWR 15:37 7% 3% 0.8% 94%
AA 118 American Flight history → LAX 06:00 JFK 14:37 8% 3% 0.8% 85%
UA 2186 United Flight history → SNA 21:15 EWR 05:33 8% 3% 1.1% 90%
UA 661 United Flight history → SNA 06:45 EWR 15:15 8% 3% 0.8% 91%
DL 934 Delta Flight history → LAX 06:00 JFK 14:33 8% 3% 0.8% 89%
B6 124 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 06:00 JFK 14:29 8% 3% 1.1% 93%
AA 2 American Flight history → LAX 07:00 JFK 15:39 9% 4% 0.8% 86%
DL 979 Delta Flight history → LAX 07:00 JFK 15:39 9% 3% 0.8% 90%
DL 556 Delta Flight history → SNA 21:00 JFK 05:27 11% 4% 1.9% 89%
B6 524 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 07:30 JFK 15:59 13% 5% 1.1% 80%
AA 10 American Flight history → LAX 21:27 JFK 06:03 15% 5% 0.9% 85%
UA 2096 United Flight history → LAX 08:20 EWR 16:45 15% 5% 0.8% 83%
AA 307 American Flight history → LAX 08:30 JFK 17:09 15% 5% 0.8% 76%
DL 958 Delta Flight history → LAX 08:10 JFK 17:00 16% 5% 0.8% 83%
UA 2397 United Flight history → LAX 21:00 EWR 05:18 17% 5% 0.8% 88%
UA 1700 United Flight history → LAX 16:10 EWR 00:44 18% 7% 0.8% 84%
DL 938 Delta Flight history → LAX 15:10 JFK 23:40 18% 7% 0.8% 79%
AA 28 American Flight history → LAX 15:15 JFK 23:54 18% 7% 0.8% 79%
DL 960 Delta Flight history → LAX 21:00 JFK 05:16 19% 6% 0.8% 86%
AA 30 American Flight history → LAX 22:23 JFK 07:00 19% 6% 1.1% 70%
AS 233 Alaska Flight history → LAX 08:35 EWR 17:13 19% 5% 1.1% 89%
AA 32 American Flight history → LAX 11:05 JFK 19:46 19% 9% 0.8% 74%
AA 238 American Flight history → LAX 10:11 JFK 18:52 19% 8% 0.9% 71%
B6 924 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 15:20 JFK 23:57 20% 8% 1.1% 81%
B6 824 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 16:20 JFK 00:56 20% 10% 1.1% 83%
AA 4 American Flight history → LAX 13:00 JFK 21:34 20% 9% 0.8% 76%
DL 951 Delta Flight history → LAX 09:50 JFK 18:35 20% 6% 0.8% 74%
B6 324 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 11:35 JFK 20:11 21% 8% 1.1% 77%
DL 972 Delta Flight history → LAX 11:15 JFK 20:02 21% 8% 0.8% 67%
B6 224 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 12:35 JFK 21:09 21% 9% 1.1% 82%
AA 274 American Flight history → LAX 11:55 JFK 20:36 21% 9% 0.8% 60%
DL 676 Delta Flight history → LAX 22:45 JFK 07:03 21% 5% 0.8% 81%
B6 424 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 09:49 JFK 18:25 21% 7% 1.1% 80%
UA 2303 United Flight history → LAX 23:15 EWR 07:30 22% 5% 0.8% 77%
B6 624 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 14:30 JFK 23:10 22% 8% 1.1% 71%
UA 2127 United Flight history → LAX 10:20 EWR 19:04 22% 9% 0.8% 72%
DL 915 Delta Flight history → LAX 23:55 JFK 08:16 22% 5% 0.8% 86%
DL 939 Delta Flight history → LAX 13:15 JFK 21:53 22% 8% 0.8% 73%
B6 1524 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 20:30 JFK 05:01 23% 9% 1.2% 83%
UA 2227 United Flight history → LAX 12:15 EWR 20:49 24% 9% 0.8% 75%
AA 2683 American Flight history → SNA 11:48 JFK 20:29 25% 9% 0.7% 67%
B6 1024 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 22:25 JFK 07:00 26% 9% 1.2% 82%
UA 1559 United Flight history → SNA 12:29 EWR 20:56 27% 10% 0.9% 64%
B6 454 JetBlue Flight history → ONT 23:51 JFK 08:13 27% 7% 0.9% 72%
UA 1981 United Flight history → LAX 11:15 EWR 19:30 27% 9% 0.8% 72%
B6 1574 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 20:33 EWR 05:00 28% 8% 1.0% 83%worse than usual
UA 1855 United Flight history → LAX 13:25 EWR 21:43 28% 9% 0.8% 62%
B6 1874 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 10:55 EWR 19:28 28% 10% 1.0% 67%
B6 1224 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 23:59 JFK 08:36 30% 10% 1.2% 68%
B6 359 JetBlue Flight history → BUR 21:25 JFK 05:59 32% 9% 2.0% 72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010 1h 27m Denver DEN 09:49 → LGA 15:46UA 2446 7h 46m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:30 → MSP 06:07DL 2084 1h 03m Minneapolis MSP 07:10 → EWR 10:49DL 2864 7h 19m 91% 83%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708 1h 11m Salt Lake City SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792 7h 47m 97% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON