Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1730 at 23:04 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 1730 LAX 23:04 → MCO 07:03 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 4146 LAX 23:00 → MCO 07:13 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1730 United Flight history →	LAX 23:04	MCO 07:03	16%	3%	5.2%	90%
DL 482 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:35	MCO 15:35	17%	6%	16.8%	84%
UA 1621 United Flight history →	LAX 10:24	MCO 18:30	18%	6%	17.2%	89%
DL 718 Delta Flight history →	LAX 16:05	MCO 00:07	21%	7%	16.8%	77%
DL 547 Delta Flight history →	LAX 22:27	MCO 06:25	23%	5%	11.8%	79%
AA 1118 American Flight history →	LAX 21:55	MCO 05:56	23%	7%	12.8%	82%
WN 2409 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 22:05	MCO 06:00	26%	8%	11.7%	64%
DL 867 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:28	MCO 18:42	27%	8%	16.8%	69%
AA 1024 American Flight history →	LAX 10:51	MCO 18:56	28%	11%	17.2%	69%
AA 2192 American Flight history →	LAX 13:54	MCO 21:59	29%	11%	16.9%	54%
F9 4146 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 23:00	MCO 07:13	38%	17%	5.0%	52%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491	1h 08m Houston	IAH 07:20 → MCO 10:51UA 2245	7h 00m	94%	72%
Southwest Details →	LAX 05:05 → PHX 06:30WN 116	1h 25m Phoenix	PHX 07:55 → MCO 15:15WN 1817	7h 10m	100%	68%
American Details →	LAX 00:31 → DFW 05:41AA 971	1h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:05 → MCO 10:49AA 2119	7h 18m	94%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON