Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3318 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 3318 LAS 07:35 → ABQ 10:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 4074 LAS 19:25 → ABQ 21:55 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3318 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:35	ABQ 10:10	5%	2%	0.5%	96%
WN 2175 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 10:45	ABQ 13:20	13%	4%	0.5%	80%
WN 2177 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 21:45	ABQ 00:20	30%	10%	0.6%	66%
WN 2755 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 17:35	ABQ 20:10	37%	13%	0.7%	66%
WN 4074 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:25	ABQ 21:55	40%	16%	0.8%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON