tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2096 at 08:35, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2096 Southwest Flight history → LAS 08:35 AMA 12:40 8% 2% 0.6% 94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Amarillo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Amarillo is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:59 → DFW 05:44AA 2921 2h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:22 → AMA 09:44AA 3389 · flown by Envoy 6h 45m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:59 → IAH 05:59UA 2840 3h 31m Houston IAH 09:30 → AMA 11:21UA 4821 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 22m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → LAS 05:05 → DAL 09:45WN 2216 2h 50m Dallas DAL 12:35 → AMA 13:50WN 380 6h 45m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → LAS 06:00 → DFW 10:53AA 1908 3h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:29 → AMA 15:46AA 3387 · flown by Envoy 7h 46m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → IAH 11:11UA 2608 1h 14m Houston IAH 12:25 → AMA 14:21UA 4817 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 21m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → LAS 05:02 → DFW 09:55AA 1780 1h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:23 → AMA 12:42AA 3384 · flown by Envoy 5h 40m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → LAS 12:14 → IAH 17:25UA 2492 3h 09m Houston IAH 20:34 → AMA 22:30UA 4839 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 16m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → LAS 10:11 → DFW 15:08AA 1584 2h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:15 → AMA 18:34AA 3388 · flown by Envoy 6h 23m 94% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAS 14:02 → DFW 19:03AA 777 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:05 → AMA 21:27AA 3510 · flown by Envoy 5h 25m 70% 57%
AmericanDetails → LAS 16:53 → DFW 21:49AA 3286 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:41 → AMA 23:59AA 1536 5h 06m 62% 42%
SouthwestDetails → LAS 10:50 → DAL 15:40WN 2218 50m Dallas DAL 16:30 → AMA 17:45WN 4127 4h 55m 54% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON