tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Portland, leaving 11:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 47% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 1637 Alaska Flight history → LAS 16:33 ANC 20:59 29% 9% 1.3% 72%
WN 1575 Southwest Flight history → LAS 18:30 ANC 22:45 39% 11% 0.9% 41%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → IAH 11:11UA 2608 3h 09m Houston IAH 14:20 → ANC 18:41UA 2369 13h 41m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 2h 48m Denver DEN 11:20 → ANC 14:53UA 280 10h 23m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → LAS 13:31 → MSP 18:42DL 2238 3h 31m Minneapolis MSP 22:13 → ANC 00:59 +1DL 411 12h 28m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:34 → SFO 15:16UA 1799 3h 31m San Francisco SFO 18:47 → ANC 22:40UA 1594 10h 06m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → LAS 11:30 → SFO 13:12UA 574 3h 38m San Francisco SFO 16:50 → ANC 20:49UA 1656 10h 19m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323 3h 45m Denver DEN 20:25 → ANC 23:59UA 400 11h 23m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → LAS 08:48 → IAD 16:24UA 1140 1h 19m Dulles IAD 17:43 → ANC 21:21UA 2073 13h 33m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:32 → MSP 14:39DL 2261 3h 31m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377 12h 28m 100% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAS 12:47 → DFW 17:49AA 3285 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:40 → ANC 22:39AA 395 10h 52m 62% 45%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 07:22 → SEA 10:05AS 479 54m Seattle SEA 10:59 → ANC 13:41AS 433 7h 19m 56% 38%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 15:12 → SEA 17:57AS 698 49m Seattle SEA 18:46 → ANC 21:25AS 661 7h 13m 47% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON