Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, G4 3185 at 09:36, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


G4 3185 Allegiant Flight history →	LAS 09:36	ATW 15:10	16%	7%	0.8%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Appleton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Appleton is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LAS 00:59 → DFW 05:44AA 2921	3h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:35 → ATW 12:09AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	9h 10m	99%	87%
American Details →	LAS 00:59 → ORD 06:45AA 2949	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 09:30 → ATW 10:45AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	7h 46m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	LAS 11:27 → DTW 18:26DL 334	2h 43m Detroit	DTW 21:09 → ATW 21:37DL 4159 · flown by SkyWest	8h 10m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282	2h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 14:20 → ATW 15:30DL 3861 · flown by SkyWest	7h 11m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	LAS 10:41 → ATL 17:45DL 777	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 21:16 → ATW 22:31DL 2945	9h 50m	98%	81%
United Details →	LAS 07:00 → ORD 12:48UA 664	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → ATW 15:09UA 4479 · flown by GoJet	6h 09m	93%	73%
American Details →	LAS 09:40 → ORD 15:42AA 2020	1h 47m Chicago	ORD 17:29 → ATW 18:44AA 3410 · flown by Envoy	7h 04m	92%	72%
United Details →	LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23UA 706	1h 37m Chicago	ORD 22:00 → ATW 23:23UA 4495 · flown by GoJet	6h 58m	87%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LAS 15:51 → ORD 22:00AA 2013	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 23:00 → ATW 00:10 +1AA 3790 · flown by Envoy	6h 19m	73%	62%
Delta Details →	LAS 13:12 → ATL 20:24DL 466	52m Atlanta	ATL 21:16 → ATW 22:31DL 2945	7h 19m	69%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON