Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1864 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 1864 LAS 07:40 → AUS 12:25 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 3569 LAS 19:25 → AUS 00:10 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 34% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1864 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:40	AUS 12:25	11%	2%	0.6%	88%
WN 2830 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 08:40	AUS 13:25	12%	2%	0.6%	83%
F9 4684 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 07:00	AUS 11:52	20%	6%	1.0%	77%
DL 2260 Delta Flight history →	LAS 17:16	AUS 22:06	32%	10%	0.8%	70%
WN 2183 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 15:00	AUS 19:50	33%	10%	0.7%	35%
WN 2186 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 20:25	AUS 01:10	34%	10%	0.7%	53%
WN 1285 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 13:05	AUS 17:55	34%	7%	0.6%	54%
WN 2184 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 16:55	AUS 21:45	36%	12%	0.7%	66%
WN 3569 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:25	AUS 00:10	41%	12%	1.0%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON