Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2188 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 2188 LAS 06:45 → BNA 12:20 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 2112 LAS 13:00 → BNA 18:45 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2188 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 06:45	BNA 12:20	5%	1%	0.5%	95%
WN 2189 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 11:40	BNA 17:20	25%	5%	0.5%	68%
WN 2191 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 23:25	BNA 05:00	27%	6%	0.6%	82%
F9 3778 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 09:00	BNA 14:46	29%	9%	0.7%	76%
WN 4395 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 15:00	BNA 20:45	30%	9%	0.6%	38%
WN 2112 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 13:00	BNA 18:45	31%	6%	0.5%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON