Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2192 at 08:35 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–44%.

Safest bet that day WN 2192 LAS 08:35 → BOI 11:25 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 1102 LAS 18:35 → BOI 21:15 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 27% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2192 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 08:35	BOI 11:25	8%	2%	0.5%	91%
WN 185 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:30	BOI 01:15	38%	8%	0.6%	35%
WN 1102 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 18:35	BOI 21:15	44%	12%	0.7%	27%
AS 2182 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 17:52	BOI 20:43	29%	12%	3.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON