Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 21–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 430 LAS 10:39 → BOS 18:49 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time Riskiest B6 1178 LAS 12:12 → BOS 20:34 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 430 Delta Flight history →	LAS 10:39	BOS 18:49	21%	6%	0.7%	64%
B6 778 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 20:50	BOS 05:00	27%	12%	0.8%	73%
B6 1178 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 12:12	BOS 20:34	30%	12%	0.8%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857	1h 12m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → BOS 11:06DL 2432	7h 33m	91%	84%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674	1h 31m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → BOS 16:36DL 657	7h 36m	98%	83%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 08m Denver	DEN 09:40 → BOS 15:44UA 1232	7h 14m	97%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON