Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2196 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 2196 LAS 06:40 → BUR 07:45 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 2163 LAS 20:45 → BUR 21:55 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2196 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 06:40	BUR 07:45	4%	1%	1.3%	92%
WN 3327 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:45	BUR 09:00	6%	2%	1.2%	100%
WN 2198 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 09:40	BUR 10:55	9%	3%	1.2%	94%
WN 1529 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 10:55	BUR 12:10	14%	4%	1.1%	85%
F9 4107 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 07:00	BUR 08:15	15%	7%	1.9%	89%
WN 4184 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 11:55	BUR 13:10	21%	6%	1.0%	31%
WN 2203 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 13:10	BUR 14:25	24%	7%	1.2%	82%
WN 2201 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 17:55	BUR 19:05	36%	12%	1.3%	71%
WN 4540 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 14:40	BUR 15:50	36%	11%	1.3%	65%
F9 1195 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 16:00	BUR 17:15	38%	17%	1.8%	71%
WN 2202 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:55	BUR 21:10	40%	15%	1.6%	69%
WN 2163 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 20:45	BUR 21:55	40%	14%	1.2%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON