Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2204 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 2204 LAS 06:50 → BWI 14:25 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 2205 LAS 14:35 → BWI 22:10 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2204 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 06:50	BWI 14:25	7%	1%	0.6%	91%
WN 1069 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:10	BWI 05:45	31%	6%	0.6%	83%worse than usual
WN 235 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:10	BWI 19:50	32%	7%	0.6%	56%
WN 2206 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 16:30	BWI 00:10	34%	9%	0.7%	59%
WN 2205 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 14:35	BWI 22:10	35%	10%	0.8%	45%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 14m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	6h 47m	98%	86%
Southwest Details →	LAS 06:45 → BNA 12:20WN 2188	1h 05m Nashville	BNA 13:25 → BWI 16:15WN 2994	6h 30m	95%	80%
Southwest Details →	LAS 08:50 → IND 15:30WN 3258	1h 10m Indianapolis	IND 16:40 → BWI 18:25WN 4536	6h 35m	94%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON