tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 392 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 392 Southwest Flight history → LAS 07:30 BZN 10:35 7% 2% 0.5% 77%
WN 992 Southwest Flight history → LAS 22:05 BZN 01:15 26% 9% 0.6% 52%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674 1h 36m Salt Lake City SLC 09:55 → BZN 11:17DL 1971 4h 17m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 3h 00m Denver DEN 11:32 → BZN 13:20UA 1248 6h 50m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282 1h 55m Minneapolis MSP 13:17 → BZN 14:47DL 2946 7h 28m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAS 10:00 → SLC 12:29DL 1698 1h 21m Salt Lake City SLC 13:50 → BZN 15:13DL 3906 · flown by SkyWest 4h 13m 95% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAS 17:00 → SLC 19:25DL 1672 3h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 6h 23m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → LAS 06:30 → DEN 09:20WN 2966 3h 10m Denver DEN 12:30 → BZN 14:10WN 4219 6h 40m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → LAS 13:15 → SLC 15:44DL 1659 1h 36m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 4h 29m 94% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAS 09:37 → DEN 12:41UA 1315 2h 34m Denver DEN 15:15 → BZN 17:10UA 6030 · flown by SkyWest 6h 33m 98% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LAS 19:55 → SLC 22:15DL 1590 50m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 3h 28m 64% 55%
SouthwestDetails → LAS 17:55 → DEN 20:50WN 2969 55m Denver DEN 21:45 → BZN 23:35WN 1505 4h 40m 57% 47%
SouthwestDetails → LAS 10:00 → SAN 11:15WN 347 55m San Diego SAN 12:10 → BZN 15:55WN 1133 4h 55m 60% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON