Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 28–36% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day F9 4966 LAS 00:18 → CLE 07:30 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest WN 747 LAS 12:50 → CLE 19:50 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 4966 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 00:18	CLE 07:30	28%	6%	1.1%	74%
F9 3232 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 14:37	CLE 21:54	35%	11%	1.1%	77%worse than usual
WN 747 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:50	CLE 19:50	36%	10%	0.5%	49%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	LAS 06:45 → STL 11:55WN 2368	55m St Louis	STL 12:50 → CLE 15:20WN 3899	5h 35m	93%	79%
Delta Details →	LAS 09:32 → MSP 14:39DL 2261	1h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 15:39 → CLE 18:31DL 1449	5h 59m	87%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON