Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2957 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–16%.

Safest bet that day AA 2957 LAS 07:00 → CLT 14:35 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2038 LAS 13:56 → CLT 21:36 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2957 American Flight history →	LAS 07:00	CLT 14:35	10%	3%	0.7%	92%
AA 2751 American Flight history →	LAS 23:45	CLT 07:04	13%	4%	0.9%	91%
AA 1665 American Flight history →	LAS 08:00	CLT 15:34	15%	3%	0.7%	88%
AA 1454 American Flight history →	LAS 22:41	CLT 06:00	16%	5%	0.9%	82%
AA 2030 American Flight history →	LAS 09:36	CLT 17:17	20%	4%	0.7%	85%
AA 2038 American Flight history →	LAS 13:56	CLT 21:36	29%	7%	0.9%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677	55m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → CLT 16:17DL 3031	6h 12m	85%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON