tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Columbus on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2212 Southwest Flight history → LAS 07:40 CMH 14:40 12% 2% 0.5% 88%
WN 873 Southwest Flight history → LAS 18:30 CMH 01:30 42% 12% 0.7% 36%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → CMH 11:48DL 1522 8h 15m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:59 → DTW 16:58DL 470 2h 56m Detroit DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic 8h 03m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → LAS 11:44 → PHL 19:46AA 3160 2h 04m Philadelphia PHL 21:50 → CMH 23:41AA 4361 · flown by Republic 8h 57m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAS 07:00 → ORD 12:48UA 664 3h 46m Chicago ORD 16:34 → CMH 19:13UA 3570 · flown by Republic 9h 13m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 03m Denver DEN 09:35 → CMH 14:28UA 480 5h 58m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAS 10:25 → ORD 16:21UA 1583 3h 24m Chicago ORD 19:45 → CMH 22:24UA 3614 · flown by Republic 8h 59m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → IAH 11:11UA 2608 1h 04m Houston IAH 12:15 → CMH 16:05UA 4072 · flown by Mesa 7h 05m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755 1h 25m Atlanta ATL 14:25 → CMH 15:59DL 2200 6h 59m 96% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAS 13:56 → CLT 21:36AA 2038 53m Charlotte CLT 22:29 → CMH 23:56AA 3226 7h 00m 68% 51%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:32 → MSP 14:39DL 2261 56m Minneapolis MSP 15:35 → CMH 18:28DL 2113 5h 56m 57% 48%
SouthwestDetails → LAS 12:35 → MDW 18:10WN 2273 50m Chicago MDW 19:00 → CMH 21:15WN 4043 5h 40m 62% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON