Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2794 at 22:55 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2794 Delta Flight history →	LAS 22:55	CVG 05:42	16%	4%	0.7%	92%
F9 3412 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 13:24	CVG 20:25	31%	14%	1.1%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160	7h 52m	100%	91%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 08m Denver	DEN 09:40 → CVG 14:28UA 1978	5h 58m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674	1h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:40 → CVG 15:03DL 2273	6h 03m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282	1h 28m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → CVG 15:39DL 3113	6h 20m	95%	84%
United Details →	LAS 06:00 → IAH 11:11UA 2608	1h 14m Houston	IAH 12:25 → CVG 15:57UA 2364	6h 57m	98%	84%
United Details →	LAS 00:59 → IAH 05:59UA 2840	1h 31m Houston	IAH 07:30 → CVG 10:59UA 6312 · flown by Mesa	7h 00m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	LAS 11:44 → MSP 16:54DL 2272	3h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → CVG 23:11DL 1469	8h 27m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	LAS 09:32 → MSP 14:39DL 2261	1h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 15:50 → CVG 18:37DL 703	6h 05m	100%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	LAS 12:35 → MDW 18:10WN 2273	55m Chicago	MDW 19:05 → CVG 21:20WN 2756	5h 45m	66%	50%
United Details →	LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23UA 706	57m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → CVG 23:52UA 2148	6h 27m	63%	50%
Frontier Details →	LAS 12:27 → MCO 20:23F9 1728	1h 01m Orlando	MCO 21:24 → CVG 23:46F9 1749	8h 19m	67%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON