Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2216 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 2216 LAS 05:05 → DAL 09:45 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 2221 LAS 18:45 → DAL 23:30 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 34% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2216 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 05:05	DAL 09:45	3%	1%	0.7%	88%
WN 1361 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 06:05	DAL 10:50	4%	1%	0.7%	85%
WN 1317 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:50	DAL 12:40	9%	2%	0.7%	64%
WN 2218 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 10:50	DAL 15:40	18%	4%	0.7%	84%
WN 2219 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 13:20	DAL 18:10	32%	8%	0.9%	55%
WN 2220 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 17:20	DAL 22:10	33%	12%	1.1%	72%
WN 1260 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 16:30	DAL 21:15	33%	12%	1.1%	28%
WN 4489 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 14:40	DAL 19:25	35%	10%	1.1%	55%
WN 2221 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 18:45	DAL 23:30	39%	13%	1.2%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON