tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2019 American Flight history → LAS 11:13 DCA 19:00 26% 7% 0.7% 76%
WN 1241 Southwest Flight history → LAS 09:10 DCA 16:45 26% 4% 0.5% 55%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:59 → IAH 05:59UA 2840 1h 47m Houston IAH 07:46 → DCA 11:56UA 2047 7h 57m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:59 → ORD 06:45AA 2949 4h 00m Chicago ORD 10:45 → DCA 13:59AA 4809 · flown by Republic 10h 00m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 7h 54m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:59 → DFW 05:44AA 2921 2h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:40 → DCA 12:42AA 1177 8h 43m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → LAS 10:39 → BOS 18:49DL 430 2h 59m Boston BOS 21:48 → DCA 23:44DL 5704 · flown by Republic 10h 05m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 58m Denver DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789 6h 29m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → IAH 11:11UA 2608 3h 09m Houston IAH 14:20 → DCA 18:31UA 625 9h 31m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:44 → MSP 16:54DL 2272 3h 36m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961 9h 12m 98% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAS 13:56 → CLT 21:36AA 2038 51m Charlotte CLT 22:27 → DCA 23:53AA 1269 6h 57m 68% 48%
AmericanDetails → LAS 14:02 → DFW 19:03AA 777 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077 6h 57m 66% 48%
SouthwestDetails → LAS 13:50 → STL 19:05WN 3851 50m St Louis STL 19:55 → DCA 22:55WN 3908 6h 05m 52% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON