Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2223 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 2223 LAS 05:05 → DEN 07:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 3843 LAS 18:30 → DEN 21:25 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2223 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 05:05	DEN 07:55	3%	1%	0.7%	95%
UA 596 United Flight history →	LAS 05:30	DEN 08:32	4%	1%	0.6%	98%
WN 2966 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 06:30	DEN 09:20	5%	1%	0.7%	100%
WN 247 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 08:55	DEN 11:50	9%	2%	0.7%	88%
F9 2350 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 06:00	DEN 09:05	10%	3%	0.8%	88%
UA 1315 United Flight history →	LAS 09:37	DEN 12:41	12%	4%	0.5%	93%
F9 4968 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 08:15	DEN 11:19	16%	6%	0.8%	86%
F9 2016 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 00:59	DEN 03:48	21%	7%	0.9%	76%
WN 2226 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 11:40	DEN 14:40	22%	4%	0.7%	71%
UA 1291 United Flight history →	LAS 18:10	DEN 21:11	23%	8%	0.6%	77%
UA 1323 United Flight history →	LAS 13:36	DEN 16:40	24%	8%	0.6%	77%
UA 2108 United Flight history →	LAS 16:25	DEN 19:30	25%	8%	0.6%	73%
WN 2230 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 21:50	DEN 00:45	31%	8%	0.7%	49%
WN 2227 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:40	DEN 15:35	31%	8%	0.7%	48%
F9 1994 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 18:34	DEN 21:41	35%	13%	1.3%	81%worse than usual
WN 1382 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 15:00	DEN 18:00	36%	9%	0.9%	43%
WN 2969 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 17:55	DEN 20:50	36%	10%	0.9%	53%
WN 1764 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 16:15	DEN 19:15	37%	11%	0.9%	48%
F9 3540 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 14:53	DEN 18:00	38%	12%	1.2%	66%
WN 3843 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 18:30	DEN 21:25	39%	12%	0.9%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON