Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1780 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 1780 LAS 05:02 → DFW 09:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 1052 LAS 14:22 → DFW 19:26 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1780 American Flight history →	LAS 05:02	DFW 09:55	7%	3%	0.9%	89%
AA 1908 American Flight history →	LAS 06:00	DFW 10:53	7%	3%	0.9%	87%
AA 617 American Flight history →	LAS 07:13	DFW 12:06	10%	5%	0.9%	89%
AA 1241 American Flight history →	LAS 08:00	DFW 12:53	12%	5%	0.9%	81%
F9 3978 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 06:00	DFW 10:57	14%	4%	0.9%	82%
AA 2921 American Flight history →	LAS 00:59	DFW 05:44	15%	5%	1.0%	81%
AA 1584 American Flight history →	LAS 10:11	DFW 15:08	18%	6%	0.9%	87%
AA 3099 American Flight history →	LAS 23:59	DFW 04:44	22%	7%	1.5%	74%
F9 1650 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 00:59	DFW 05:43	24%	9%	1.1%	77%
AA 3285 American Flight history →	LAS 12:47	DFW 17:49	30%	11%	1.0%	69%
AA 2376 American Flight history →	LAS 15:23	DFW 20:24	30%	12%	1.1%	66%
AA 777 American Flight history →	LAS 14:02	DFW 19:03	31%	11%	1.1%	73%
AA 3286 American Flight history →	LAS 16:53	DFW 21:49	33%	12%	1.5%	65%
F9 1052 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 14:22	DFW 19:26	35%	14%	1.1%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON