tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1755 at 11:00 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1755 Southwest Flight history → LAS 11:00 DSM 16:00 22% 3% 0.5% 78%
G4 8 Allegiant Flight history → LAS 16:12 DSM 21:11 33% 13% 0.8% 88%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 09:33 → DSM 10:45DL 1704 8h 12m 100% 93%
SouthwestDetails → LAS 05:05 → DEN 07:55WN 2223 2h 05m Denver DEN 10:00 → DSM 12:50WN 1524 5h 45m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 18m Denver DEN 09:50 → DSM 12:47UA 5211 · flown by SkyWest 5h 17m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:59 → DFW 05:44AA 2921 1h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:11 → DSM 09:11AA 3495 · flown by Envoy 6h 12m 94% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086 8h 47m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:41 → ATL 18:47DL 748 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → DSM 22:29DL 2306 8h 48m 96% 79%
AmericanDetails → LAS 09:40 → ORD 15:42AA 2020 3h 03m Chicago ORD 18:45 → DSM 20:18AA 4102 · flown by Envoy 8h 38m 97% 78%
FrontierDetails → LAS 06:00 → DEN 09:05F9 2350 1h 41m Denver DEN 10:46 → DSM 13:34F9 1678 5h 34m 96% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23UA 706 1h 02m Chicago ORD 21:25 → DSM 22:56UA 1839 6h 31m 69% 56%
DeltaDetails → LAS 13:12 → ATL 20:24DL 466 51m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → DSM 22:29DL 2306 7h 17m 68% 56%
AmericanDetails → LAS 16:34 → PHX 17:48AA 3186 1h 02m Phoenix PHX 18:50 → DSM 23:48AA 568 5h 14m 65% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON