Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3163 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 3163 LAS 07:35 → ELP 10:20 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 4260 LAS 17:45 → ELP 20:30 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3163 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:35	ELP 10:20	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
F9 3450 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 16:22	ELP 19:19	32%	16%	1.0%	70%
WN 4340 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 21:55	ELP 00:45	33%	12%	0.7%	52%
WN 4260 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 17:45	ELP 20:30	37%	13%	0.7%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON