tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2234 at 12:00, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2234 Southwest Flight history → LAS 12:00 EUG 14:05 24% 7% 0.6% 71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674 2h 26m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → EUG 11:48DL 4135 · flown by SkyWest 5h 48m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → LAS 17:00 → SLC 19:25DL 1672 3h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 22:55 → EUG 23:55DL 3721 · flown by SkyWest 6h 55m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → LAS 10:00 → SLC 12:29DL 1698 2h 33m Salt Lake City SLC 15:02 → EUG 16:02DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest 6h 02m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → LAS 06:45 → PHX 08:00AA 1808 2h 21m Phoenix PHX 10:21 → EUG 13:06AA 4114 · flown by Envoy 6h 21m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 2h 43m Denver DEN 11:15 → EUG 12:57UA 318 7h 27m 100% 82%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 11:00 → PDX 13:20AS 1467 1h 10m Portland PDX 14:30 → EUG 15:23AS 3042 · flown by SkyWest 4h 23m 92% 80%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:10 → SEA 08:45DL 2844 2h 45m Seattle SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest 6h 48m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → LAS 16:34 → PHX 17:48AA 3186 2h 52m Phoenix PHX 20:40 → EUG 23:17AA 4028 · flown by Envoy 6h 43m 97% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:34 → SFO 15:16UA 1799 54m San Francisco SFO 16:10 → EUG 17:56UA 5604 · flown by SkyWest 4h 22m 64% 44%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 12:16 → SEA 15:00AS 676 50m Seattle SEA 15:50 → EUG 17:00AS 2338 · flown by Horizon 4h 44m 54% 36%
DeltaDetails → LAS 19:06 → SEA 21:49DL 2956 46m Seattle SEA 22:35 → EUG 23:51DL 3855 · flown by SkyWest 4h 45m 28% 23%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON