Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1975 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 1975 LAS 07:00 → EWR 15:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 1731 LAS 12:35 → EWR 20:40 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1975 United Flight history →	LAS 07:00	EWR 15:00	9%	2%	0.7%	96%
UA 1681 United Flight history →	LAS 22:34	EWR 06:30	17%	6%	1.0%	86%
UA 1784 United Flight history →	LAS 09:56	EWR 18:00	19%	5%	0.7%	87%
UA 1317 United Flight history →	LAS 14:23	EWR 22:27	28%	10%	0.8%	66%
UA 1731 United Flight history →	LAS 12:35	EWR 20:40	30%	8%	0.8%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 08:18 → EWR 10:29DL 2397	6h 56m	88%	80%
Delta Details →	LAS 05:50 → DTW 12:44DL 864	1h 26m Detroit	DTW 14:10 → EWR 15:54DL 2573	7h 04m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	LAS 19:55 → SLC 22:15DL 1590	1h 23m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 +1DL 2038	7h 05m	85%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON