Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1423 at 09:35 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28%.

Safest bet that day WN 1423 LAS 09:35 → FAT 10:55 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest G4 12 LAS 16:24 → FAT 17:41 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1423 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 09:35	FAT 10:55	8%	3%	0.6%	90%
G4 32 Allegiant Flight history →	LAS 11:59	FAT 13:16	15%	8%	0.7%	85%
G4 27 Allegiant Flight history →	LAS 13:24	FAT 14:41	24%	10%	0.8%	62%
WN 407 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:50	FAT 00:10	28%	13%	0.6%	31%
WN 2235 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 15:40	FAT 17:00	28%	10%	0.7%	45%
G4 12 Allegiant Flight history →	LAS 16:24	FAT 17:41	28%	12%	0.8%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON