Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 658 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35–42%.

Safest bet that day B6 658 LAS 07:00 → FLL 14:56 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest B6 608 LAS 22:35 → FLL 06:29 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 658 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 07:00	FLL 14:56	24%	9%	1.3%	86%
B6 1708 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 11:13	FLL 19:17	35%	13%	1.6%	76%worse than usual
B6 608 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 22:35	FLL 06:29	42%	20%	3.8%	71%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 15m Denver	DEN 09:47 → FLL 15:47UA 2188	7h 17m	98%	79%
United Details →	LAS 06:00 → IAH 11:11UA 2608	55m Houston	IAH 12:06 → FLL 15:53UA 1706	6h 53m	93%	74%
United Details →	LAS 08:00 → IAH 13:07UA 1181	1h 13m Houston	IAH 14:20 → FLL 18:07UA 462	7h 07m	95%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON