Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2306 at 09:20 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2306 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 09:20	GEG 11:40	15%	3%	0.5%	78%
WN 4268 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:10	GEG 00:35	34%	10%	0.6%	36%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	2h 43m Denver	DEN 11:15 → GEG 12:37UA 295	7h 07m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	LAS 07:15 → SMF 08:45WN 2359	2h 15m Sacramento	SMF 11:00 → GEG 12:50WN 302	5h 35m	100%	86%
Alaska Details →	LAS 06:02 → SEA 08:45AS 701	1h 10m Seattle	SEA 09:55 → GEG 11:00AS 2200 · flown by Horizon	4h 58m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674	3h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → GEG 12:12DL 1452	6h 12m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	LAS 10:00 → SLC 12:29DL 1698	2h 56m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:25 → GEG 16:08DL 1503	6h 08m	98%	84%
United Details →	LAS 09:37 → DEN 12:41UA 1315	1h 05m Denver	DEN 13:46 → GEG 15:11UA 324	5h 34m	93%	81%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282	57m Minneapolis	MSP 12:19 → GEG 13:21DL 2437	7h 02m	92%	81%
Alaska Details →	LAS 11:00 → PDX 13:20AS 1467	1h 10m Portland	PDX 14:30 → GEG 15:41AS 3262 · flown by SkyWest	4h 41m	92%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LAS 19:06 → SEA 21:49DL 2956	56m Seattle	SEA 22:45 → GEG 23:55DL 2354	4h 49m	47%	32%
Alaska Details →	LAS 10:02 → SFO 11:43AS 570	46m San Francisco	SFO 12:29 → GEG 14:36AS 3075 · flown by SkyWest	4h 34m	42%	26%
Alaska Details →	LAS 18:19 → SAN 19:36AS 2251 · flown by Horizon	46m San Diego	SAN 20:22 → GEG 23:07AS 566	4h 48m	12%	8%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON