Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2238 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 2238 LAS 08:15 → HNL 11:35 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 805 LAS 18:20 → HNL 21:39 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2238 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 08:15	HNL 11:35	14%	3%	0.6%	93%
WN 4109 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 09:15	HNL 12:40	19%	3%	0.6%	81%
AS 817 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 01:55	HNL 05:16	22%	4%	0.9%	87%
WN 2240 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 10:20	HNL 13:40	23%	4%	0.6%	83%
AS 807 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 10:05	HNL 13:29	32%	8%	1.0%	65%
AS 805 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 18:20	HNL 21:39	35%	13%	1.3%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAS 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 643	1h 45m San Francisco	SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43UA 1175	8h 43m	99%	84%
United Details →	LAS 10:45 → LAX 12:05UA 203	1h 10m Los Angeles	LAX 13:15 → HNL 15:59UA 1431	8h 14m	100%	79%
United Details →	LAS 06:00 → LAX 07:14UA 2039	1h 51m Los Angeles	LAX 09:05 → HNL 11:53UA 1158	8h 53m	99%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON