Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2051 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 2051 LAS 05:10 → HOU 10:10 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 2244 LAS 19:55 → HOU 00:55 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2051 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 05:10	HOU 10:10	3%	1%	1.6%	90%
WN 981 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:45	HOU 12:55	11%	2%	1.3%	76%
WN 4724 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 11:25	HOU 16:35	27%	5%	1.2%	76%
WN 2243 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 15:10	HOU 20:20	30%	10%	0.9%	37%
WN 4498 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 18:50	HOU 23:55	37%	12%	0.9%	46%
WN 2244 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:55	HOU 00:55	38%	12%	1.0%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON