Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1140 at 08:48 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 1140 LAS 08:48 → IAD 16:24 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest F9 4278 LAS 00:46 → IAD 08:20 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1140 United Flight history →	LAS 08:48	IAD 16:24	11%	3%	0.5%	87%
UA 2382 United Flight history →	LAS 13:23	IAD 21:06	21%	6%	0.6%	82%
F9 4278 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 00:46	IAD 08:20	24%	6%	0.7%	65%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAS 09:37 → DEN 12:41UA 1315	1h 12m Denver	DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347	6h 45m	93%	77%
Delta Details →	LAS 13:31 → MSP 18:42DL 2238	1h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest	6h 49m	82%	71%
Delta Details →	LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677	54m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695	6h 41m	84%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON