tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 1276 at 10:50, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1276 Southwest Flight history → LAS 10:50 ICT 15:20 24% 6% 0.5% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wichita on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Wichita is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 09:15 → ICT 10:26DL 1637 7h 53m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:59 → DFW 05:44AA 2921 1h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:43 → ICT 09:06AA 3789 · flown by Envoy 6h 07m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 23m Denver DEN 09:55 → ICT 12:27UA 5497 · flown by SkyWest 4h 57m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:44 → MSP 16:54DL 2272 3h 16m Minneapolis MSP 20:10 → ICT 22:00DL 3541 · flown by SkyWest 8h 16m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → LAS 05:02 → DFW 09:55AA 1780 2h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:28 → ICT 13:52AA 3592 · flown by Envoy 6h 50m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282 2h 01m Minneapolis MSP 13:23 → ICT 15:09DL 3595 · flown by SkyWest 6h 50m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:59 → IAH 05:59UA 2840 3h 47m Houston IAH 09:46 → ICT 11:38UA 4358 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 39m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → LAS 09:37 → DEN 12:41UA 1315 2h 54m Denver DEN 15:35 → ICT 18:07UA 4782 · flown by SkyWest 6h 30m 98% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAS 12:14 → IAH 17:25UA 2492 51m Houston IAH 18:16 → ICT 20:12UA 4855 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 58m 66% 50%
UnitedDetails → LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23UA 706 57m Chicago ORD 21:20 → ICT 23:31UA 2762 7h 06m 63% 49%
AmericanDetails → LAS 14:02 → DFW 19:03AA 777 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:05 → ICT 21:22AA 2863 5h 20m 70% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON