Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2246 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–45%.

Safest bet that day WN 2246 LAS 07:25 → IND 14:05 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 2248 LAS 19:05 → IND 01:45 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2246 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:25	IND 14:05	11%	2%	0.5%	98%
WN 3258 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 08:50	IND 15:30	13%	3%	0.5%	89%
WN 4706 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 14:05	IND 20:40	38%	11%	0.6%	50%
WN 2248 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:05	IND 01:45	45%	14%	0.8%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON