Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 510 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 510 LAS 07:05 → JFK 15:17 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 795 LAS 12:10 → JFK 20:39 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 510 Delta Flight history →	LAS 07:05	JFK 15:17	8%	3%	0.8%	96%
B6 2348 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 06:29	JFK 14:29	9%	3%	0.9%	81%
DL 498 Delta Flight history →	LAS 23:30	JFK 07:25	16%	4%	1.1%	64%
DL 333 Delta Flight history →	LAS 09:35	JFK 17:59	19%	4%	0.8%	85%
AA 556 American Flight history →	LAS 22:46	JFK 07:00	20%	6%	1.0%	84%
B6 1548 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 10:25	JFK 18:32	22%	6%	0.9%	72%
B6 348 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 11:35	JFK 19:47	25%	8%	1.0%	73%
AA 2002 American Flight history →	LAS 12:34	JFK 21:00	26%	9%	0.9%	62%
DL 689 Delta Flight history →	LAS 15:36	JFK 23:47	27%	8%	0.9%	71%
B6 948 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 23:59	JFK 08:00	28%	9%	1.4%	72%
DL 795 Delta Flight history →	LAS 12:10	JFK 20:39	29%	7%	1.0%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON