tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via LAX, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4452 Southwest Flight history → LAS 09:30 KOA 12:50 14% 3% 0.5% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → LAX 07:14UA 2039 1h 46m Los Angeles LAX 09:00 → KOA 11:42UA 2373 8h 42m 99% 89%
SouthwestDetails → LAS 07:15 → SMF 08:45WN 2359 1h 15m Sacramento SMF 10:00 → KOA 12:20WN 3783 8h 05m 100% 88%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 01:55 → HNL 05:16AS 817 2h 44m Honolulu HNL 08:00 → KOA 08:46AS 1038 9h 51m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → LAS 10:20 → HNL 13:40WN 2240 3h 35m Honolulu HNL 17:15 → KOA 18:05WN 1911 10h 45m 100% 85%
SouthwestDetails → LAS 08:15 → HNL 11:35WN 2238 1h 40m Honolulu HNL 13:15 → KOA 14:10WN 561 8h 55m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 3h 43m Denver DEN 12:15 → KOA 15:37UA 1758 13h 07m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:34 → SFO 15:16UA 1799 3h 52m San Francisco SFO 19:08 → KOA 21:45UA 731 11h 11m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → LAS 06:45 → PHX 08:00AA 1808 2h 40m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → KOA 14:06AA 663 10h 21m 97% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LAS 12:16 → SEA 15:00AS 676 59m Seattle SEA 15:59 → KOA 19:05AS 238 9h 49m 66% 49%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 15:12 → SEA 17:57AS 698 1h 02m Seattle SEA 18:59 → KOA 22:10AS 200 9h 58m 65% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON