Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2039 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–48%.

Safest bet that day UA 2039 LAS 06:00 → LAX 07:14 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 2255 LAS 18:30 → LAX 19:45 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2039 United Flight history →	LAS 06:00	LAX 07:14	6%	2%	0.6%	97%
WN 2251 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 06:55	LAX 08:10	11%	2%	0.6%	91%
UA 203 United Flight history →	LAS 10:45	LAX 12:05	13%	5%	0.6%	94%
DL 553 Delta Flight history →	LAS 06:52	LAX 08:00	16%	3%	0.8%	94%
AA 6425 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 10:04	LAX 11:24	18%	7%	0.7%	93%worse than usual
F9 3291 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 08:07	LAX 09:25	18%	7%	0.7%	82%
WN 973 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 09:00	LAX 10:15	20%	4%	0.6%	83%
DL 1718 Delta	LAS 09:46	LAX 11:00	21%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 1971 United Flight history →	LAS 17:32	LAX 18:52	22%	10%	0.7%	100%worse than usual
UA 2184 United Flight history →	LAS 14:15	LAX 15:35	23%	8%	0.6%	83%
DL 1696 Delta Flight history →	LAS 13:08	LAX 14:24	25%	7%	0.8%	75%
UA 2282 United Flight history →	LAS 20:29	LAX 21:53	27%	10%	0.7%	77%
F9 2263 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 13:58	LAX 15:20	27%	12%	0.8%	89%worse than usual
DL 2120 Delta Flight history →	LAS 17:41	LAX 18:55	29%	9%	1.0%	79%
WN 3168 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:10	LAX 13:30	31%	6%	0.7%	83%worse than usual
AA 4946 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 18:03	LAX 19:23	32%	12%	1.1%	59%
AA 2039 American Flight history →	LAS 14:36	LAX 15:54	33%	11%	0.8%	59%
DL 2288 Delta Flight history →	LAS 19:06	LAX 20:16	37%	11%	1.1%	78%worse than usual
WN 4500 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 15:50	LAX 17:10	37%	11%	0.7%	62%
WN 255 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 14:15	LAX 15:30	39%	9%	0.7%	54%
F9 2333 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 18:56	LAX 20:14	40%	16%	1.0%	64%
AA 1399 American Flight history →	LAS 19:25	LAX 20:41	41%	13%	1.0%	69%
WN 2256 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 20:55	LAX 22:10	41%	14%	0.6%	33%
WN 1056 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:25	LAX 23:45	42%	13%	0.6%	50%
WN 2255 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 18:30	LAX 19:45	48%	14%	0.7%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON