Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 276 at 07:55 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 276 LAS 07:55 → LGB 09:05 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 1322 LAS 18:05 → LGB 19:15 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 276 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:55	LGB 09:05	11%	3%	0.6%	86%
WN 2260 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 11:35	LGB 12:45	21%	6%	0.6%	94%worse than usual
WN 2031 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 20:00	LGB 21:10	35%	12%	0.6%	70%
WN 3061 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 14:30	LGB 15:40	37%	11%	0.7%	27%
WN 1322 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 18:05	LGB 19:15	39%	14%	0.7%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON