tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via SFO, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Lihue on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2262 Southwest Flight history → LAS 09:25 LIH 12:45 16% 2% 0.6% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → LAS 01:55 → HNL 05:16AS 817 3h 59m Honolulu HNL 09:15 → LIH 09:56AS 1183 11h 01m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 643 1h 30m San Francisco SFO 09:05 → LIH 11:50UA 1384 8h 50m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → LAS 10:20 → HNL 13:40WN 2240 3h 40m Honolulu HNL 17:20 → LIH 18:05WN 2349 10h 45m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → LAX 07:14UA 2039 1h 31m Los Angeles LAX 08:45 → LIH 11:44UA 1295 8h 44m 98% 84%
SouthwestDetails → LAS 08:15 → HNL 11:35WN 2238 1h 50m Honolulu HNL 13:25 → LIH 14:15WN 1923 9h 00m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAS 11:30 → SFO 13:12UA 574 3h 43m San Francisco SFO 16:55 → LIH 19:42UA 1684 11h 12m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 3h 28m Denver DEN 12:00 → LIH 15:37UA 2307 13h 07m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → LAS 07:15 → SFO 08:52UA 2356 1h 44m San Francisco SFO 10:36 → LIH 13:16UA 1298 9h 01m 96% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON